If you’re new to sports betting, you may often see a term called EV when using Mysports.AI to check match predictions. In the sports betting world, many bettors have heard of EV (Expected Value), but few truly understand its meaning and how to apply it to their betting decisions.
EV is a key metric that measures the long-term returns of a bet, helping you identify value in wagers and improve your profitability. This article will explain how EV is calculated in detail and show you how to use AI tools like Mysports.AI to identify positive expected value (+EV) bets.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Mathematically, Expected Value (EV) represents the average return per bet over the long run. It is calculated using the following formula:
EV = (Winning Rate × Profit) + (Losing Rate × Loss)
In sports betting, EV helps bettors assess whether a wager is worth placing by comparing the implied probability of the odds to their own calculated probability.
- If EV is positive (+EV), the bet has long-term profit potential.
- If EV is negative (-EV), the bet is expected to lose money in the long run.
Why is Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting So Important?
Most sports bettors focus on the question: “Who will win?“
However, smart bettors don’t just think about who will win—they focus on whether the odds offer value.
+EV betting ensures long-term profitability through mathematical advantage, rather than relying on gut feelings or emotions.
For example: You believe a team has a 60% chance of winning, but the bookmaker’s odds suggest only a 50% implied probability.
Since your probability estimate is higher than what the odds imply, this bet is considered +EV and profitable in the long run.
On the other hand, if your estimated probability is lower than the bookmaker’s implied probability, the bet is -EV and should be avoided.
How to Calculate EV and Identify Value Bets?
You can easily calculate EV and find the most valuable betting opportunities using these steps:
Step 1: Convert Odds into Implied Probability
Every set of odds has an implied probability, which can be calculated using these formulas:
- Decimal Odds:
Implied Probability = (1 / Odds) × 100%
For example, if a team’s odds are 2.5, then its actual win probability is: (1 / 2.5) × 100% = 40%
- For positive American odds (+):
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
For example, if a team’s odds are +150, the implied probability is: 100 / (150 + 100) = 40%
- For negative American odds (-):
Implied Probability = | Odds | / ( | Odds | + 100)
For example, if the odds are -200, the implied probability is:
200 / (200 + 100) = 66.7%
Step 2: Calculate Expected Value (EV)
Let’s say you bet $100 on a team with +150 odds, and Mysports.AI predicts the team has a 50% actual win probability. The EV calculation is:
EV = (50% x 150) – (50% x 100) = +25
This means that, over time, betting $100 on this type of wager will yield an average profit of $25 per bet, making it a +EV bet.
What is Vig? How Does It Affect EV?
Bookmakers charge a commission on bets, known as Vig (Vigorish or Juice). Vig reduces bettors’ long-term profits.
For example, a 50% win probability bet should have +100 odds, but sportsbooks often offer it at -110, meaning you need at least 52.38% win probability just to break even.
To ensure accurate EV calculations, always use No-Vig (Fair) Odds to get a clearer picture of the bet’s true value.
Mysports.AI utilizes AI models trained through machine learning ( for a detailed explanation, refer to the article “AI Algorithm” ). It analyzes various game features, gathers real-time odds, and recalculates team win probabilities. Using these probabilities, it then calculates the expected value (EV). There’s no need for manual calculations or downloading any EV calculator—everything is displayed in a simple and intuitive way, allowing you to instantly see each team’s win probability and EV while viewing the matches.
How to Use Mysports.AI to Find +EV Bets?
Mysports.AI is designed specifically for sports bettors and offers:
- ✅ Real-time odds tracking to find the best market prices
- ✅ Win probability calculations based on AI analysis
- ✅ Automatic EV calculations to help identify +EV bets instantly
- ✅ Picks record and profit trends to refine betting strategies
- ✅ Custom AI picks tailored to different betting styles
By using Mysports.AI, you can save time on calculations and significantly improve your betting accuracy.
How to Improve Your EV Betting Strategy?
- Analyze Match Data – Use Mysports.AI to find the best odds and +EV opportunities.
- Practice Bankroll Management – Bet 1-5% of your total bankroll per wager to avoid large losses.
- Avoid Emotional Betting – Don’t let team loyalty or star players influence your decisions.
- Monitor Market Movements – Early bettors often secure better odds and more value.
Conclusion: Use EV Strategy to Improve Your Betting Success
EV is the key to long-term profitability in sports betting. By calculating EV and leveraging AI tools like Mysports.AI, you can consistently identify valuable bets and increase your win rate.
Remember, sports betting isn’t just about picking winners—it’s about finding value. By using data and AI, you can gain an edge over sportsbooks and improve your betting strategy for sustained success!
2025-02-14